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'Most of the other great powers on the planet are coming to see the
United States as a rogue superpower. (Britain is formally an exception
under Prime Minister Tony Blair, but even in London the concern is palpable
at lower levels of government.) Yet everybody is deeply reluctant to
confront the United States directly, since that would just hasten the
collapse of the multilateral order they still hope to save. The result has
been a lengthy pause in which most other major powers refuse to approve or
assist the American adventure in Iraq, but avoid any open defiance of
American power.
'Instead, they are waiting. They waited for American voters to
repudiate the Bush strategy in last month's election (though they were well
aware that the strategy of a Kerry administration would not have been
radically different). They continue to wait for the resistance war in Iraq
to grow into a second Vietnam that will turn the US public against the
whole neo-conservative project (but they cannot be sure that that will
happen before their own public opinion loses patience and demands that they
move to contain rampant US power). They half-dread the collapse of the US
dollar, but half look forward to it as a blow that might shift American
policy.
'They are on hold, in other words, and they will stay that way as
long as they possibly can -- because the alternative is to start creating
alliances and building up their own military power in order to contain the
United States. Do that, and you have started to lay the foundations for
World War III, so nobody wants to go there.
'Nobody should go there. The United States no longer dominates the
international system except in terms of hard military power, and that is an
instrument that often breaks in the hands of American governments because
the US public hates casualties. Sooner or later American voters will rebel
against the human and financial cost of trying to be Globocop. so just wait
it out, and sooner or later normal service will be restored in Washington.
That is the right strategy, and there is at least a couple of years' worth
of patience in other capitals before anybody gives up on it. With luck,
that may be enough.'
From: http://www.gwynnedyer.net/articles/Gwynne%20Dyer%20article_%20%202004%20Year-Ender.txt
United States as a rogue superpower. (Britain is formally an exception
under Prime Minister Tony Blair, but even in London the concern is palpable
at lower levels of government.) Yet everybody is deeply reluctant to
confront the United States directly, since that would just hasten the
collapse of the multilateral order they still hope to save. The result has
been a lengthy pause in which most other major powers refuse to approve or
assist the American adventure in Iraq, but avoid any open defiance of
American power.
'Instead, they are waiting. They waited for American voters to
repudiate the Bush strategy in last month's election (though they were well
aware that the strategy of a Kerry administration would not have been
radically different). They continue to wait for the resistance war in Iraq
to grow into a second Vietnam that will turn the US public against the
whole neo-conservative project (but they cannot be sure that that will
happen before their own public opinion loses patience and demands that they
move to contain rampant US power). They half-dread the collapse of the US
dollar, but half look forward to it as a blow that might shift American
policy.
'They are on hold, in other words, and they will stay that way as
long as they possibly can -- because the alternative is to start creating
alliances and building up their own military power in order to contain the
United States. Do that, and you have started to lay the foundations for
World War III, so nobody wants to go there.
'Nobody should go there. The United States no longer dominates the
international system except in terms of hard military power, and that is an
instrument that often breaks in the hands of American governments because
the US public hates casualties. Sooner or later American voters will rebel
against the human and financial cost of trying to be Globocop. so just wait
it out, and sooner or later normal service will be restored in Washington.
That is the right strategy, and there is at least a couple of years' worth
of patience in other capitals before anybody gives up on it. With luck,
that may be enough.'
From: http://www.gwynnedyer.net/articles/Gwynne%20Dyer%20article_%20%202004%20Year-Ender.txt